July 30, 2009 - In 2008, months before the New Green Scene started to take hold of consumer technology marketing departments, TDG fielded a national consumer study on green behavior and dispositions, both in general and specific to consumer technology. In that report (as well as public statements on this same topic), I warned companies not to invest too heavily in this trend because history has proven consumers to have short attention spans in regard to environmental and energy-related issues. When energy prices decline and prosperity resumes, consumers are likely to go back to their old ways of thinking and behaving. This disturbing proclivity was validated yet again by new research from Experian Automotive - a division of Experian PLC (a global information services company).
By measuring vehicle sales against the fluctuations in gas prices in 2008 and early 2009, Experian's research showed market share for small and economy vehicles normalized just as quickly as it had initially increased - even when gas prices remained 25% higher than where they started. This phenomenon is illustrated below.
As noted, in January 2008, gas prices averaged $3 per gallon across the country and the small/economy-car market share was 10%. When gas prices hit $3.70/gallon in May 2008, market share peaked at 17%. However, when gas prices soared to $4.09/gallon in August 2008, the market share for small/economy cars was already starting to slip. In September, when gas prices fell back slightly to $3.70 per gallon, market share returned to 10%. Similarly, the market share for hybrid vehicles peaked at 3% in April 2008 when gas was $3.44/gallon but fell below 2% in August when gas was $4.09/gallon.
Interpretation: Traditional wisdom suggests that higher energy prices will induce energy-friendly behavior (in this case, greater demand for fuel-efficient cars and lower demand for "gas hogs"). While this is initially true, it is just a matter of time before consumers backslide into their old habits (especially if energy prices come back to more reasonable levels).
TDG argued in 2008 that the same should be expected in regards to the purchase and use of energy-efficient and eco-friendly consumer electronics - and for much the same reasons. Consumer attention spans are shortening, a natural consequence of our 24/7 news cycle and our hyper-paced life. Yes, "Leaning Green" may have legitimate marketing value. However, to the extent (a) it is replaced in popular media by topics of more immediate interest and (b) the monetary incentive to alter one's behavior declines even before energy prices begin to drop, the message becomes less convincing and the likelihood of positive consumer response diminishes.
"Leaning Green" is the right message and without doubt we need to hear and think more about the impact of our behavior on other human beings and the environment at large. However, its value as a marketing tool (much less as a foundation for multi-million dollar ad campaigns) is not a sure thing.
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