Michael Greeson, Founding Partner, Research
December 2, 2011
If you rolled up all the rumors about Apple's pending TV-specific products and services into a single essay, any semi-rational reader would be forgiven for thinking the company is about to step into home video in a very big way. In light of this week's crop of rumors, this perception seems not only rational but increasingly plausible.
Apple continues its work on the next generation of Apple TV (codename J33), which is likely to feature an A5 dual-core processor that supports 1080p playback abilities. While noteworthy, it is 'news' on the long-rumored Apple connected TV that is worthy of particular attention. According to long-time Apple analyst Gene Munster, Apple will release a line of 'iTVs' in the second half of 2012 and is reportedly working with Sharp to manufacturer the television.
According to Munster, the sets will cost about twice the price of same-size rivals and, though a standard remote will be provided, users can manage their television experience using a Siri-enabled iPhone or iPad. Seamless remote-free TV control finally arrives, but will it be too late for Apple to do for connected TV what it did for mobile phone and pad use?
Keep in mind that Microsoft is set to add voice and gesture recognition to the Xbox update on December 6. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if (or how) an Xbox-based TV control system will work with separate content sources such as broadcast or PayTV. Yes, Microsoft is working aggressively to convince PayTV providers to support the game console as a fully-functional PayTV set-top box, meaning the integration of Xbox's pending voice and gesture recognition technology into the PayTV experience may be closer than we think (at least for Xbox owners). How all this will play out, however, remains a mystery.
So why would Apple choose late 2012 to enter the highly-commoditized, low-margin business of television displays? The answer is surprisingly uncomplicated: its voice and motion control technologies will be sufficiently robust to support a fully-integrated multi-source TV experience that is easy to use and grounded in the Apple ecosystem. With Siri up and running and iCloud in place (bugs hopefully worked out by iTV launch time), Apple can finally deliver on the aspiration of virtually all CE vendors: a television that easily connects to other (Apple) net-enabled devices; that integrates control of PayTV channels with OTT options like iTunes; and that does not require a PC-like keyboard to operate. Such is the promise of an Apple television; a promise in harmony with its iOS philosophy - taking an experience or product that is traditionally complex and using new technology to simplify it. As experience suggests, Apple may not be the first to market with a new product or service, but when it arrives, you know it - the core experience is forever altered.
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