email signup

Syndication

TDG Opinions

Sezmi? Says Who?


Bookmark and Share   Subscribe to RSS Feeds   Subscribe for TDG Updates Download More Info

Sezmi?  Says Who?
Michael Greeson, Founding Partner, Research

 

February 19, 2010

Sezmi - an emerging TV service provider that combines over-the-air (OTA), cable, and web video content into a single integrated TV service—is set to launch in the LA area. If all goes well, it hopes to expand nationally. With more than $75 million in investment to date, Sezmi appears to have convinced a number of heavy-hitters that this model will work; a model that depends on a (ridiculous) upfront hardware fee of $299 plus monthly subscription revenue from a “TV service” that differs little from basic cable or satellite TV service.

Are the investors at Sezmi drinking the proverbial Kool-Aid or is there more to this than meets the eye?

With the launch of the Sezmi hybrid TV service in the greater LA area—and a promised national expansion to follow—consumers will soon have another option for their home TV services. The Sezmi service is different from regular cable and satellite TV in several ways:

  • It uses over-the-air (OTA) broadcasts of local channels and supplements it with a mix of cable network and web content (good move);

  • It charges an upfront fee of $299 for the required hardware (stupid move);

  • It offers dramatically lower monthly subscription fees (good move); and

  • It provides dramatically less content than a regular cable subscription (not necessarily bad or good, but is it the right content mix?).

For $299, you get a Sezmi-branded HD DVR that blends live, recorded, on-demand and online content and can store up to 1,400 hours of programming, plus an over-the-air receiver that brings in broadcast and cable signals. Once Best Buy has your $299, you can choose from two tiers of service:

  • The entry-level Select package ($4.95/month) offers more than 50 local channels from the L.A. area, including major broadcast networks such as ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC, MyNetwork, PBS, Azteca, Telefutura, Telemundo and Univision (all of which are free via OTA). 

  • The premium Select Plus package ($19.95/month) includes cable TV from TBS, TNT, USA Network, Bravo, CNN, Headline News, Discovery Channel, Comedy Central, Planet Green, MSNBC, VH1, Cartoon Network, Oxygen, CNBC, MTV, Nickelodeon, TLC, Science Channel, Syfy, Animal Planet, TruTV, Boomerang and TCM.

Okay – got it. But where is the audience of users waiting to jump onboard this type of service, upfront fee and all?

In other words, who is Sezmi targeting with this basic tier?

Perhaps Sezmi is going after some of TiVo’s 1.5 million subscribers who currently watch a combination of OTA broadcasts and broadband video via the $14.95/month TiVo service. Then again, most TiVo subscribers use the service merely to supplement their PayTV subscription, not to replace it. Perhaps Sezmi believes it can convince some of TiVo’s subscribers that using its lowest tier will get them OTA plus broadband content at a cheaper price.

Perhaps Sezmi is going after the dwindling number of OTA-only users. But aren’t these the same folks that for years have resisted paying for PayTV? Does Sezmi really expect these consumers to fork over a $299 upfront fee, a monthly service charge of $5, plus additional fees for specific on-demand content? Really?

By the way, a would-be Sezmi subscriber must also pay for a home broadband service (another $40-$50 for most people). For the OTA-only folks, this means $299 upfront plus $5/month for the Sezmi service and another $40-$50/month for broadband service. Ouch!

The $20 tier, on the other hand, more obviously targets current PayTV subscribers by adding a limited amount of cable content. However, it still begs the question whether this content assortment will be enough to get consumers to ditch their PayTV service. With only a handful of cable channels, the upper Sezmi tier will leave many PayTV customers without some of their favorite channels. And this isn’t just my opinion. When TDG asked adult broadband users which 10 channels they believe to be “must haves” for any new TV service, the results were as follows:

(among adult broadband users interested
in an OTT video service, n = 1,510)
Percent that Selected
Network to be in Top 10
ABC 78.5%
CBS 72.9%
NBC 72.4%
FOX 62.6%
Discovery Channel 50.8%
HBO 40.8%
ESPN 38.6%
The History Channel 37.7%
Comedy Central 35.1%
Food Network 33.3%

Data from OTT: Prices, Devices and Market Slices TDG 2009

Sezmi covers the first four (as does free OTA TV access) as well as Discovery (ranked fifth) and Comedy Central (ranked ninth). That is six of the top 10 “must have” channels – not bad. However, it lacks some of the most compelling cable channels such as ESPN, HBO, The History Channel, and The Food Network. Independent of the upfront fee (which will kill the deal for most consumers), the lack of the right types of content could prove to be Sezmi’s Achilles’ Heel. Of course, Sezmi will argue that this is but the initial content offering which, over time, will expand to include all sorts of cool content.

Makes sense.  However, with this new content comes an increase in subscription fees. For example, cable operators pay ESPN around $4.50 per sub, meaning adding ESPN to the Sezmi mix would increase the price of the Select Plus tier 25% (from $20 to at least $25 per sub) and put it in line with other basic cable offerings (thus diminishing what differentiation it may have had).

As well, Sezmi seems to ignore the fact that incumbent PayTV operators such as Dish Network today provide customers with all the hardware needed (included a DVR) and a much wider array of content for only $25 per month. In other words, there are incumbent services available that deliver a much better value than the Select Plus tier without the hefty upfront fee.

Could Sezmi honestly believe that its VOD and web content will make up for the lack of cable content? I doubt it. Every MSO in the U.S. is expanding its VOD offerings and adding web content to the TV mix. As well, TV Everywhere efforts are pushing high-value cable content to the web so that subscribers can access their favorite TV content on any Internet-connected device at any time they chose.

Consumers today have a wide variety of sources from which to select their TV content. From Hulu to Netflix, iTunes to TV Everywhere, every business model, price range, and content niche is already being exploited. Sezmi brings nothing new to the table. Further, by setting itself directly against incumbent PayTV operators it must meet a much high bar in regards to consumer expectations. With its current formulation, it provides neither good value for the money nor a sufficient array of compelling content.

And this from the mouth of an OTT enthusiast…

************************************************************************************

SEE ALSO: TVE vs. OTT: Are You Ready for a Throwdown?

 



ShareThis

Comments

 

Peter Clegg said:

Key point...what is the upfront time commitment? If there is none, then the $299 is a little more palpable. If it's 12-24 months, then the hardware cost is definitely out of line.

February 19, 2010 3:57 PM
 

Randy Giusto said:

Yeah, they are out of their minds if they think it will scale.

February 19, 2010 4:42 PM
 

Andy Tarczon said:

Peter - Time commitments do allow subsidizing the box, but putting a price, any price, on the box instills a barrier.   I wrote about this last year: VUDU Economics. ( http://ow.ly/19gOi)  Since then, VUDU has stopped selling their box altogether.  

Admittedly, the feature set associated to the Sezmi service (OTA DVR) will create a hard time piggybacking on other devices, but putting a sizable financial barrier on an unproven service will not help.

Just like it didn't help AppleTV, VUDU, ZeeVee, etc.

February 19, 2010 6:04 PM
 

Taras Bugir said:

You allude to the pay as you go VOD service. Frankly, this is by far the most attractive part of this service. If you extrapolate this service, and it's purported Amazon-like suggestion engine, then the model does provide the capability for a Netflix type (though much cheaper pay as you got) consumer model - potentially far attractive. However, I agree with the basic contention - why spend so much up-front to get into the VOD game compared to Netflix alone? Difference, VOD content is trickle fed via RF and does not require a broadband connection... but then, how many consumers fall into that category?

February 19, 2010 6:45 PM
 

Stephen P. said:

I've been trialing Sezmi since Dec and compared to my Uverse 200 it's $30/mo cheaper (v.attractive,) but the selection (and quality) isn't as good (ugly.)

Since the $300 for h/w will be recouped in about a year vs. Uverse I guess it could be an option for some.

I have no need for whole home DVR, but do miss some of the shows that I used to record. Right now I'm not sure I'll stick with Sezmi, but I'm sure it'll only get better.

February 19, 2010 8:33 PM
 

Rick Preti said:

Sezmi is the holy grail for local broadcasters - if the technology can be implemented effectively in their coverage areas. However, broadcasters will need to complete the total communications package to compete. Their newly awarded digital DNA must quickly lead them beyond yesterday's one-way antenna services, with or without a Sezmi.

February 20, 2010 6:57 AM
 

Randy Giusto said:

I strike my "out of their minds" comments and stand a bit corrected.

Sezmi may be working with other MSO's which may help subsidize the HW price, and there does not appear to be a 1 or 2 year agreement required. They also plan to add more channels and the strategy is not to up the price every time they add a new channel or even 5-10 new channels. And there may be more rev streams in the biz model too.

According to reports, they had a big subscription upswing in LA that they had to stop the registrations for a while, the system couldn't take it.

I do have to look at the wired vs. wireless setup more because it looks like you may have to have wired ethernet in the room with the primary TV. If so, that's a bit of a limitation.

February 24, 2010 12:46 PM
 

Mark Rudholm said:

I'll share my thoughts as someone who replaced a $105/month Dish subscription with a $20 Sezmi subscription this weekend.  First of all, it will take between three and four months for me to recover the cost of the box.  I feel that's trivial.  Second, I felt Dish was overpriced due to their channel bundels and their pay-per-availability pricing model.  I live alone and started doing the math.  I was paying about 8$ per watched TV show.  What I needed was something closer to a pay-per-consumption model and that didn't discard the value my OTA signal represents.  I like that the Sezmi leverages that free content and relies heavily on a VoD (pay-per-consumption) pricing model.  I also like the (predictive) DVR and the genre-categorizing program guide.  There are no contracts, and I already have a fast Internet connection.  The couple of shows I can't get through Sezmi I can get via the Internet.

I think you're mistaken Michael.

March 15, 2010 5:01 PM
 

Michael Greeson said:

Thanks for the comments, Mark.  I actually hope I am wrong about Sezmi’s chance of success.  I for one would like nothing better than to see a company finally succeed in bringing an alternative TV service to the marketplace, one capable of giving incumbent PayTV operators a run for their money and providing consumers greater flexibility and ultimately better value.  The issue is whether Sezmi in its current incarnation is so capable.  My answer is still “no.”

It is great that this model appeals to you as a consumer and I hope the substitution works out.  I’m sure that there are other consumers that will find the service equally appealing.  The challenge is finding a national audience willing to pay $299 upfront to receive a limited array of content.  I have fielded several large-scale primary consumer research on precisely these types of offerings, for many of the companies that are leading today’s over-the-top efforts.  The research continues to find that putting a large upfront fee between the consumer and the service is a losing proposition – period.  If you don’t believe the research, just ask the incumbent operators with which these new services are supposed to compete.  Cable operators would love to charge the consumer a separate fee for every piece of equipment they push into subscriber homes, but they know they cannot.  How do they know this?  From years and years experience.

So extensive primary research plus years of real-world experience say that Sezmi in its current incarnation is unlikely to succeed.  Yes, one can argue with one or the other, but arguing with both comes at great risk.

Yes, all new business models—successful and otherwise—have to start somewhere.  Perhaps the Sezmi service will morph into something more profound, something that actually stands a chance of being around five or ten years down the road.  In order for this to happen, however, Sezmi must listen closely to TDG and others that are warning of the model’s limitations.  

In the meantime, I do hope your new service works out well.  Keep us posted on your experience.  

March 24, 2010 11:01 AM
 

William Henson said:

So the cost of the box seems to be the big issue.  Does everyone not realize that they aren't the only ones that sell the box?  Go to BestBuy and try to walk out with a TiVo for free, or often a DirecTv HD DVR.  Often times DirecTv will offer a special where the HD DVR is free, but usually they only offer a free upgrade to a HD box or a DVR box, but not a HD DVR.  Also when you get that box for DirecTv remember that you don't own it.  That box belongs to them and you have to ship it back when you cancel service.  Also you pay a monthly lease fee on top of your subscription.  Just a little food for thought.  Lets compare apples to apples no.

May 17, 2010 3:44 PM
 

Aaron said:

I'm in Pasadena Ca and I got Sezmi 3 weeks ago from Best Buy for $199.99+tax, but with 3 months of Sezmi premium included (normally $20/month) that brings my hardware cost down to $149.99

I am a former early adopter of Tivo and was paying $12.95/month just to record some OTA programming (cable & satellite not currently available in my new apartment) and Sezmi is exactly what I was for. By the end of 2010 they will be adding ESPN to their lineup. Having TNT, TBS, USA, VH1, MTV, Cartoon Network, Boomerang, etc for $20/month with a 1400 hour DVR and VOD is very reasonably priced.

July 28, 2010 6:48 PM

About Michael Greeson

 

Michael Greeson
Founding Partner, Research
Executive Editor, OTT Monitor

Michael covers a variety of topics related to consumer technologies with a particular focus on broadband adoption, home networks, value-added fixed and mobile services, and the future of the "connected consumer." To date, Michael has authored or co-authored more than 50 reports on these topics. He is widely considered to be among the world's leading consumer technology and digital home analysts.

Michael graduated with honors from the University of Chicago, earning a Master's of Art in Interdisciplinary Social Science in which he blended studies in sociology, psychology, social theory, and philosophy. Prior to Chicago, Michael graduated with honors from the University of Central Oklahoma, earning a Bachelor's of Arts in Philosophy.