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After spending a couple weeks with Google TV via the Logitech Revue, and talking with content providers, operators, and technology companies about it, I am very optimistic for the long-term success of the platform. However, I believe in the short-term market acceptance will be disappointing.
What Google TV Does Right
The time is right for a more open approach to content delivery at the television. Google TV has some absolutely critical ingredients that set it apart from other similar efforts such as Apple TV and Roku:
1. The HDMI-In Feature. In concert with the Logitech Revue, Google TV is available on the same TV input as one’s PayTV service. This is critical: not having to switch away the primary television input in order to use Google TV offers huge advantages.
2. Google TV's supporting platform is compelling. The platform – Android, the Chrome browser, and Google’s app market – is a strong one that will resonate with content and application developers.
3. Integration with Dish Network. Being able to control my Dish subscription and search Dish content from the interface is a great feature.
4. The application environment is TV sensitive. Developers can write applications that synchronize with what the user is watching. I can’t wait to see what content developers do with this feature. 5. An open browser is part of the platform. Annoyances like broadcasters blocking their content aside, any website is now available on a television.
What Google TV Does Wrong
Unfortunately, I believe the time frame for success will be slower than Google or any of its partners would like. My reasons for making this prediction are as follows:
1. Too much emphasis on search. Search is a lousy way to discover new content yet is the principle way used in Google TV. App developers and Google will need to innovate here quickly.
2. Major content providers not playing ball. In the long term, the machinations of NBC, CBS, ABC, and FOX will have little effect on the success of platform. However, in the short term, not being able to get that content will impede the value proposition of the solution and slow market acceptance.
3. Apps on TV are not the same as apps on mobile. Eric Freund at Surewest reminded me that, while a cell phone is personal device, a TV is communal platform. Almost all existing apps developed for Android will be of little interest on TV, and it will take a long time for the TV app market to develop a sufficient array of compelling TV-centric apps.
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I've spent several weeks using both Sony and Logitech Google TV devices, and I still think Google TV is going to be a game changer for advanced TV and video. While initial consumer adoption may be relatively slow, I believe sales will accelerate significantly during 2011 as word of mouth takes hold.
What Google TV Does Right
Most importantly versus other Net-to-TV devices, Google TV is an extremely open platform. It includes a browser, Flash, HD Flash video, and Android. Plus, developers can launch content and apps with no business relationship with Google. Additionally, Google TV has an HDMI input, meaning it actually ingests TV programming and therefore can work with it directly. Devices without an HDMI input can't do that. Specifically, what does Google TV do right?
1. It delivers true HD-quality video from the Internet to a TV. If the content provider has encoded the video appropriately, 1080P HD Flash video plays smoothly and looks great, equal to or better than “TV."
2. It provides an open and familiar tools “playing field” for application developers.
3. It presents a frictionless business context for content providers. Anyone can optimize and launch content. Yes, most of it will be awful, some of it will be decent, and even less will be brilliant. Such is the nature of video content.
4. It offers a path for big media companies who cannot currently get their video to consumer TVs (e.g. NY Times and Vevo). This I consider the #1 initial consumer-use case for Google TV: accessing premium HD video not currently available on TV.
5. It has the potential to provide a great lean-back experience. The Logitech Google TV box, in particular, The keyboard is as big as my laptop's, but light and thin. I find sitting back in my comfy chair and using it is a pleasure. I have definitely enjoyed using my Google TV – that is, when I’m not watching TV (which, let's face it, is still going to be the primary use case for most TVs for a long time).
What Google TV Does Wrong
Primarily, my issues with Google TV are not core to the platform, even in its first rev. My issues are mainly with developers and business people who are not using the platform correctly.
1. Its openness lets developers produce bad apps (and good ones too). Dear Developers - you're on a big HD screen, please design your UIs and encode your video accordingly. And test it before you launch it!
2. Search and Discovery. "Quick Search" for TV and video content isn't "ready for primetime." It misses obvious TV results and presents irrelevant web video results. It also doesn't seem very scalable. More work is needed, but it's a software fix that can be updated.
3. It is a bit expensive. But is it really that expensive for early adopters in a world with $499 and up iPads? Plus Moore's Law will drop the price quickly anyway.
4. Already alienated the Big Four major broadcasters. Some TV networks are concerned about Google TV and are blocking access to full episodes online (including all of the majors - ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX). TV people see ad dollars and viewer ratings as a zero-sum game. But, I can get full TV episodes through Google TV via my Comcast DVR (with ad skipping) and there's a lot content providers willing to step into the HD Internet video to TV gap.
5. Some ill-conceived hardware. The Sony Google TV mini chiclet-button keyboard/controller that comes with the Sony Blu-ray player is literally a pain to use. All I can say is “competition improves the breed.” Google TV offers a variety of new use cases, quality-in-place technology, some excellent in-market apps, and an open playing field. Developers will get up the learning curve. If enough "trigger apps" are launched (i.e., one that makes a platform a "must have" for consumers) and we see good early adopter word of mouth, Google TV sales will accelerate dramatically during 2011.
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