Bill Niemeyer, Senior Analyst
December 3, 2010
Six weeks after its introduction, Google TV appears to be dead or dying, at least according to a number of press articles during the last few weeks.
I choose to differ. While Google TV is not an out-of-the-gate sales star, there is still good reason to believe it will be a success. And there are further reasons to not become complacent about the long-term game-changing impacts of the platform category that Google TV represents.
According to some, when Sony dropped the prices of its Google TV devices for last weekend's "Black Friday to Cyber Monday" period, this was in reality the beginning of the end. Sony’s Google TV Blu-ray player was cut to $299 from $399, as were prices for its Google-enabled TVs. The Hollywood Reporter declared "Google TV Stumbles One Month After Launch." TechCrunch asked is "Google TV Already In Trouble?"
So, with apparently slow consumer uptake and price decreases already happening, why is there reason to believe Google TV can still be a success?
Here are a few key reasons:
The Price of Sony’s Google TV Devices Went Back Up – The price drop was but a short-term deal to spur demand, not a permanent move that somehow admits defeat. Admittedly, a Black Friday sale would probably not happen on a just-introduced product that was hitting big, but we're hardly in closeout mode yet. Also, remember that Logitech’s Revue pricing was never changed, only the Sony products.
Think the Pricing is Too High Today? Just Wait a Couple of Days – In technology, the pricing for just about everything comes down quickly—really quickly.
As a Hardware and Application Platform, Google TV is Ready For Success Right Now – It does a great job of rendering well-executed 1080p HD streaming video, as well as Flash and Android applications. It's easy to connect and set up. For me, the one platform problem is that the Sony chiclet mini-keyboard is pretty horrible. On the other hand, I like the Logitech full-size keyboard a lot.
Google TV Offers a Significant New Outlet For Content Providers – Google TV is a dream platform for many Over-the-Top video providers—easy to develop for and no business friction (no Google agreements required). Google may not want this emphasized, considering its conflicts with TV networks blocking Google TV access. I believe the "killer app" for Google TV is the ability to deliver HD video content to the TV that consumers can't get through cable, satellite, and telco IPTV. There are many non-TV-incumbent media companies, both large and small, that are eager to "get in the TV business” and Google TV provides such a conduit.
Problems with Search, UI, and Content Can Be Fixed With a Software Update (Just Like On the Web) – On this subject, I generally agree with the bad reviews: the user interface and search/discovery process on Google TV needs work. Also, most content offerings are comprised of "slapped together" applications that are barely TV-optimized, which means poorly encoded video and a lousy viewer experience (there are a few standout exceptions of excellent execution). Overall, such issues threaten to undermine the consumer value proposition. Then again, each is addressable via simple software updates with new applications and content.
We Have Yet To See the Open Android App Market on Google TV – App markets have had a dramatic impact on the mobile smartphone market. In Q1 2011, Google will launch the Google TV Android App Market, allowing any third-party developer to create, deploy, and monetize apps, all without any Google gatekeeping.
Google is on A Mission, One Supported by Deep Pockets and an Open Playing Field – Google is undoubtedly in this for the long haul. It has the financial capacity to stick with it and a stated interest in gaining a place on America's #1 media delivery platform. And at the moment, they have an open playing field. While other OTT devices (like Apple TV, Roku, and Boxee) offer capability subsets, only Google TV offers the ability to combine Internet with TV (through the “HDMI In” port) on an open platform with a full browser, Flash, HD streaming video, and a widely used app environment.
It is because of the legitimate potential of Google TV that I believe we'll see the release next year of an Apple TV that is functionally a Google TV box, but executed "Apple style." At the moment, however, Google pretty much has the entire (full-function) connected TV device market to itself.
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