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When It Comes to Sharing in New Entertainment Revenue, Glass is Last

When It Comes to Sharing in New Entertainment Revenue, Glass is Last
Andy Tarczon, Founding Partner

May 26, 2011

TDG’s newly released report, OTT TV Platforms, 2011 – Forecasts & Analysis, predicts that net-ready or “smart” TVs will rapidly become a primary platform for over-the-top (OTT) TV delivery. This forecast is seemingly great news for TV manufacturers who have long been living on razor-thin margins. The idea that their new platforms can enable new video services and applications means potentially lucrative recurring revenue sources. Sadly, much of that is an illusion. When it comes to sharing in new entertainment revenue, unfortunately glass is last.

Today’s PayTV business models see money flow from the consumer to the operators, the programmers, all the way back to the cameras creating the work. Revenue bypasses the television manufacturer. Even in the digital models dominated by Netflix and iTunes, revenue flows backwards leaving television manufacturers standing at the end of the line (the wrong end).

So smart TVs and the new experiences they help create seem like logical entry points for TV OEMs to gain access to that revenue, be it in the form of purchases from app stores, pre-loaded software deals, or even advertising within the embedded guide. There are some key challenges, though, that must be addressed if this approach is to be effective.

Fragmentation is not a strategy
“Build an app store and they will come” is the strategy some TV makers are adopting, spending countless dollars to create their own platforms and app stores, and fragmenting the market into silos of branded, incompatible solutions. The belief is that the best platform will win, but the reality is that it creates an environment in which developers and content creators must weigh the potential value of each device in terms of market share and potential audience. For example, Streaming Media put out a comprehensive guide to the Internet Set Top Box (iSTB) market showing just how convoluted and confusing this space has become.

As with iSTBs, net-ready TVs are a category of OTT TV platform. In reality, however, there are actually a wide variety of disparate platforms that fall under that common moniker, each made by a different OEM with its own proprietary spin (e.g., Samsung, LG, Panasonic, Sony, Google, Apple, and on and on). As well, there are numerous iSTB platforms trying to license into the television space (e.g., Boxee, Roku, and others). With each manufacturer offering a platform that is incompatible with the others, consumers end up confused because the product category is so fragmented.

Standardization is not only warranted but will win out in the end. Fragmentation has never gained long-term support. Just ask Sony (Beta), Toshiba (HD-DVD), Amiga, and now Nokia (Symbian).

Can GoogleTV and iTunes Unify the Market?
Much hype surrounded the initial launch of GoogleTV, which unfortunately failed in its first iteration. Rumors of Airplay licensing now swirl in the industry. However, when seen through the eyes of the television manufacturer, these are environments that enable transactions and revenues to occur on someone else’s platform, similar to pay TV where revenue bypasses the TV maker. Apple and Google are not companies known for sharing revenue, leaving manufacturers remaining as “dumb pipes” of video. Most of the manufacturers are well aware of this challenge and both platforms are meeting resistance.

Short-Term Payments Are Not Optimal For Long-Term Recurring Revenue Opportunities
As TV manufacturers look for creative ways to increase revenue and profitability, some are going so far as to include specific OTT service buttons on their remote controls allowing easier service use and stickiness for those OTT TV services. Netflix basically paid manufacturers to put a button on their remote controls, and this week Wal-Mart’s Vudu service announced it would be adding buttons to Vizio and other TVs.

These payments to TV OEMs may be direct cash or valuable co-promotion (wanna bet Wal-Mart will heavily advertise these new boxes?), but they do not involve ongoing revenue shares with the manufacturer. No. They are merely short-term cash or payments for new client acquisition.

Finding Common Ground
I recently posed an interesting question to CE manufacturers dealing with this issue. Are they better off building proprietary platforms that cannot “talk” to one another, or would they be better off working with their competitors to create a common platform that met the goals of entire value chain? As usual, the question was met with a mixture of emphatic rejection and thoughtful nods at the possibility, yet no OEM was willing to agree publicly to the idea.

Industry efforts like UltraViolet will soon permit content sharing across disparate platforms, but the challenge is which TV OEM will be the first to move in this direction. It’s been done before (i.e., acTVila in Japan), but could such a play work here in the U.S.?

Let’s think about these issues through the eyes of the various players:

  • Developers must prioritize platforms and development resources. Netflix may be at the front of this struggle, as more than 200 specific platforms now support the streaming service. The company recently shifted its strategy from developing clients for each unique platform to building its own API and applying resources to the validation process. If Netflix isn’t developing for every platform, how can we expect smaller players to do so? Again, market fragmentation hurts everyone.

  • Programmers see value in these platforms but are unsure how best to support such efforts. They are torn by the dual imperatives of increasing distribution while solidifying relationships with PayTV distribution partners.

  • Operators are looking to support a broader range of viewing screens across multiple locations. But with the channel conflict inherent in delivering to net-ready TVs, their importance ranks lower on their development list than iPads and other portable devices.

Key to market growth is the creation of common platforms that allow all parties - developers, programmers, and even PayTV operators - to extend their services in new and meaningful ways. Until the TV makers accept this reality and come together to enable such a platform, they will make little progress in winning a share of the recurring entertainment spend.



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Comments

 

Tony said:

great commentary as usual. Yes hardware OEMs are inhabited by unimaginative thinkers used to focusing on BOM and cost rather than stretching their limbs and considering how to build service cross platforms.

May 26, 2011 5:04 PM
 

Seth said:

Insightful article and, in principle, I agree with your logic.  The only wild card would be Apple -- they are riding such a wave of popularity that they could introduce a proprietary TV set that supported iOS apps and fragmentation be damned, they would quickly be the market leader.

May 26, 2011 6:39 PM
 

Dave said:

Well written Andy.

How can the TV manufacturers get recurring $ where phone and tablet manufacturers do not?   Well, apple and RIM do with their own app stores, but the Android gang doesn't.

I read you're suggesting the TV gang build their own platform and app store and share in the revenue?    That's interesting.

Could laggard MSFT do something really interesting and partner with TV COs and share revenue with them?  -- Although MSFT OS probably too heavy to run on TVs...

May 27, 2011 10:55 AM
 

Dave said:

Seth -- there are rumors of an Apple iOS TV I believe...

May 27, 2011 10:57 AM
 

Andy Tarczon said:

Thanks Seth.  You are right that Apple is a wild card, but I'm doubtful they'd make such a direct play as to release a television set - at least in the short term.  We could talk about the level of competition and slim margins already in the market.  We could talk about the fact that they have a TV-enabling device that isn't selling.  We could talk about the fact that Apple (as they've shown in their ebook controversy) wants 30% of every transaction (cough).  But the reality is that in all of our consumer testing, interactivity scores better on a companion platform to the tv, not on the tv itself.  The ability to find content, to look up an actor and get the latest news about them, the ability to play along with game shows, (insert your own example), these are not the functions demanded on the television screen.  They work better on devices used in conjunction with the TV experience.  

I'd see them pursuing the Airplay effort to link their media efforts to other manufacturers. The strategy works for Apple, just not for the TV manufacturers goals of finding a recurring revenue source.  

May 27, 2011 10:57 AM
 

Andy Tarczon said:

Dave - good points. Yes, similar challenges have hit the handset market - but those markets are controlled by Google and Apple - the same players mentioned above.  Both the TV OEMs and the programmers are hesitant on ceding control in this market.  

Microsoft is always a company for consideration, especially as they have both the XBOX Live platform AND the Media Room platform powering the larger IPTV players.  But it will have to unify a lot of resources within the company (now possible under their re-org) and be far better supported than Windows Media Center Extenders were.

May 27, 2011 12:01 PM
 

Lee Allen said:

OK here is the cranky old emeritus analyst back in from the cold.  All this makes me want to ask: Where is the market gravity pulling the TV into a larger role?  So far, all I see is a group of TV makers who see the revenue flowing by and wish they had a piece.  Not a compelling business case.  

Apple ‘s had great success with the iPad, but there was “gravity” for a tablet market that existed unsatisfied for 10-12 years.  Remember all those tablet attempts from Microsoft, HP, Fujitsu and others?  The medical-industry vertical (they needed it so badly that they used whatever was available)?  People knew “there was something there”, but no one could get it to go.  Apple finally did, and did it well.  And the phones: We (and I use the term loosely) were so starved for true innovation in mobile wireless that we (and I use the term loosely) were snapping up Razrs and thought the Ming was cool.  Again there was market pull, a vacuum, a sense of waiting for someone to make things right.  That’s why the far-and-away leaders in this space are companies that were not even in the business five years ago.

So what’s going to do it for the TV makers? Well, what is it that you’d really love to do with your TV that you cannot now do?  Note that the question must be asked given the existence of all other devices including the iSTB, so folding in an iSTB does not count.  Long silence.  The only thing I could come up with was seamless transfer of media delivery (I walk into a room with a TV and I optionally start watching on the TV the media I was watching on my phone).  But if they try to own that, the best resulting scenario would be that they steward the standardization of the capability and then lose control, because they are but one peer player in that process.  

Moreover, how do you create a revenue stream from that?  Don’t even think about charging per handoff.  In summary, I think I would view any kind of recurring monetization of TV the same way that I would view putting a pay washer and dryer in my laundry room.  The kindest thing I can say is that there would always be a competitor willing to put a non-pay washer and dryer in there for a one-time price.

June 15, 2011 6:04 PM

About Andy Tarczon

Andy has spent the past 15 years in consumer computing concentrating on storage, media devices, and mobile systems. As Founding Partner, his focus is managing the corporate development team and working with TDG Members and clients to develop strategies for the digital media ecosystem.